最近辽宁开始鼓励老年人自主创业、奖励生育二孩，以对抗日益严重的老龄化危机，这会是全社会的预演吗？老龄化是把软刀子，割来的时候不觉得疼，但是当你把视野放大，把个人的行为汇集为整体，就会明白整个中国实际上正在试图通过储蓄房子来应对老龄化。作者从人口危机的视角深度切入，犀利解读中国当前的经济社会困境，却又不乏国家未来的期冀，推荐阅读。

I have a dream that we can make this place good, both in the natural and social environment Instead of trying to emigrate to another country。

After all, if I was born and raised here9.6 million square kilometers without shelter, where else in the world would there be shelter。

1

According to the Bureau of Statistics,2017年中国出生人口数是1723万人，比2016年下降63万人，比卫计委预测的2017年出生人口下限2023.$20,000 is 3 million short。Among them, the birth population of second children is 8.83 million, and the first child is only 7.24 million.若In 2015, we did not fully open the two-child policy, and the birth population has fallen in an avalanche。

Step back in time30 years, 1987, China born 2528.8万人，这是个注定后无来者的出生高峰，它由60年代中国的前一个生育高峰所决定，又决定了20年多后的、刚刚过去的2016年这个生育高峰。1987年以后，出生人口数便一路下滑，到2004-06年低处的时候，已经不足1600万，相去最高峰不足2/3。The future population will also emerge from this trend, and even without considering the already basement low fertility intention, according to the most optimistic estimates,In the futureWithin seven years, the number of births will fall below 10 million and will be overtaken by the number of deaths, entering a long period of negative population growth。

The consequences of the birth slump were not immediately apparent, but the pain of the population peak was。Due to the traditional Chinese zodiac concept,The Year of the Dragon 2012 is a big year for births,From 2011 to 2013, the number of births in Shanghai was 18.00，22.61，19.62 million, Beijing born population of 19.1、22.4、21.Six thousand, all with a bulge in the year of the Dragon。而2018年正是2012年出生人口大量入学的年份，所以年初看到有人抱怨说给北京政府年缴税数百万，孩子却没有办法在北京上学，所以两三年前，上海好多孩子的家长去政府抗议说没有幼儿园可上。

Many private kindergartens have seen great growth in recent years, some of which have been implicated in child abuse scandals。The price of having a baby dragon is huge,Some worry that when their children are two or three years old, they begin to look around for suitable school district housing and spend a lot of money to buy it。Not only that, the pressure of children born in the year of the Dragon has always existed, and they face more fierce competition in the middle school entrance examination。

2015年是羊年，传统生肖观念里不是个好年份，便成为一个生育低谷，相应的，2014年与2016年形成了两个生育小高峰。此外，恰逢2015年全面放开二孩，2016年二孩集中生育，两大因素叠加使得北京的出生人口暴增50%有余，由2015年羊年的不足20万到2016年猴年出生28万人，所以北京猴宝宝上学会是个大麻烦，很多北京出生的孩子注定无法在北京上学。In contrast, Shanghai was previously implemented due to the stricter implementation of the one-child policy in the south“单独二孩”政策已经释放了较多二孩生育意愿，2016年上海的生育高峰就没有那么北京那样夸张了。

Anyway, for the kids inFor parents born after 2017, whether in Beijing, Shanghai or any other city, the future is a great sigh of relief。As the number of births declines, the concept of a degree will fade and admission will become easier。当然并不是所有人都为此高兴，与之相伴的是学区房炒作的冷却，母婴、早教、K12教育这些行业也将排队由盛转衰。

2

Aging is a commonplace in China。在Four years before the 2016 birth peak,In 2012, China has reached the labor force population inflection point,And every year since300-400万左右的速度锐减，到2017年的时候，累计减少数量已经超过一整个深圳的常住人口。更夸张的是即将到来的断崖式下降，到了2023年，劳动力人口每年都会减少1000万以上，一个超大城市人口量。

2012 was not a good year for the Chinese economy either。钢铁煤炭行业相继有巨头出现破产，温州与鄂尔多斯房价一溃千里，并越演越烈有向全国蔓延的趋势，日后房价一飞冲天的杭州，彼时不乏价格近乎腰斩的楼盘。经济的不景气在金融市场体现出来，股价萎靡，以至于临近大会时，证监会为了维护指数稳定，暂停了Ipos, in return, began to encourage financial innovation。

Today we know,Finance is essentially a zero-sum game of stocks and bonds,There is no innovation, and financial innovation is synonymous with financial fraud, right。证监会监管下的券商没有创出什么东西来，互联网金融等非牌照金融机构在金融创新的大旗下却蓬勃发展起来，为日后的金融败局添砖加瓦。

当然，What is the direct connection between the 2012 recession and the decline in the labor force, and more the legacy of the 2008 stimulus。If we're serious about going back to the source,Many of today's questions are reachableSince 2008, ten years of ups and downs have gone round and round, the problem has not been solved, people are old, and the labor force is gone。

For individuals, the effects of aging often erupt suddenly in the form of events。比如父母的身体在某一天出现问题，检出重大恶性疾病，那么从检查、治疗到后期护理，都会是一项劳心劳力伤财的事情。而在当前国内环境下，联系住院、专家会诊、手术这些事情，或多或少有些你懂的，考验着家庭的人脉、耐心和钱包。And this generation is mostly the only child, the pressure is often all on a person or a couple。I believe that many people will have friends around them because of their parents' physical reasons, making their entire life plan changed significantly。

At the beginning of the year, the circle of friends brushed the screen of "Beijing Middle-aged under the flu" recorded the father-in-law from the flu to pneumonia, from the clinic toICU, 29 days exhausted the family's energy and years of savings, and eventually Yin and Yang were separated。文章的火爆缘于很多的人感同身受，这种事情很可能发生在自己身上，而且对于大多数普通家庭来说，遇上类似的事情受到的打击，无疑会比文中北京产阶级家庭大得多。

但是若没有遇到事件，老龄化进程又是缓慢的，个体对老龄化的感知非常有限，软刀子割来不觉得疼，以至于还很多人以为，老龄化也没什么大不了的。

3

For society as a whole, the economic answer to ageing seems obvious。To maintain output, and even grow, in the face of a shrinking labor force, labor efficiency must be increased。And improve labor efficiency hasThree ways: technological progress, reduce losses, optimize the structure。虽然认真写起来可以长篇累牍，但全部都是废话，因为不管有没有老龄化问题，从社会整体角度讲，劳动效率总是越高越好，能用的办法早就全都用上了。

Pragmatic Japanese know this truth, so there is no department for aging, only a department for reducing the number of children,The main task is to find a way to get people to have more babies。Another solution is to make people retire later, delaying the exit of the Labour force。但是延迟退休政策在国内放出风声的时候引起骂声一片，因为大家看出来政府根本不关心人是不是退休，只是想晚发、少发点退休金。

At the individual level, for the average person, if they have fewer children, they can only save。And the older the population, the more they need to save。Most people have come to realize that saving money is half the effort, and it is。From the perspective of society as a whole, money is a useless thing that cannot be eaten, used or produced if the savings of all the people in China are increasedZero is just adding another zero to the price。而劳动力不足的时候，即使没有央行印钱，物价也会上升，何况根本没有什么能阻止央行开印钞机，或者丧心病狂地开印钞机。

To protect against currency depreciation, people are turning to real estate in the hope that holding property will reduce the impact of inflation。On the whole, this is naive thinking。虽然印钱速度很快，造房子的速度也不慢，中国房地产投资总额、房地产开竣工面积在大多数年份里都保持两位数以上的增长。

So with a shrinking population and more and more houses, it is hard to imagine a future in which rich property can be exchanged for scarce Labour。按照2012年房地产市场分化论，三四线城市房子早就过剩了，然而棚改、PSL一来，国开行数以万亿计地向房地产市场撒钱，房子早就过剩的三四线城市房价6年后又涨了好几倍。

The developer and the original owner are10万一平还是以1万一平卖给购房人，这个交易本身对社会整体来说并不重要，只不过是一种财富的再分配，只不过是房产证换了名字，房款换了主人。

The higher the house price, the greater the price paid by the buyer, the higher the benefit of the seller。经常有人提房地产存在价值提升，其实价值是不可量化的，上海静安寺的一套物业，拿来住就是居住价值、拿来商用就是生产价值，居住价值就是住起来舒服商业繁华交通便利，这些跟价格没有什么关系，不可能因为单价从$5,000 goes up to $500,000, and you can become a fairy if you live there。With the subway around the building and the opening of a business district, even if the price is cut in half, the living value is also increased。

所以当人们提到房地价值提升的时候，其实只是在说价格提升，然而地还是那块地、房还是那间房，社会总体财富不会因为价格上涨有任何提高。有一个讽刺笑话说，卖掉半个上海把整个台湾买下来，中国的半导体产业就能突飞猛进了，而如果上海房价接着翻一番，卖掉四分之一个就足够了。

Although the price of a single real estate transaction has nothing to do with the overall wealth of the society, for buyers, it is very important50,000 / flat or 100,000 / flat to buy a house, but it may be related to the level of consumption for a long time in the future, related to marriage and childbearing plans。买房子变成了件太过重大的事情，以至于在劳动力日渐短缺的时候，人们花在讨论、研究房子上的精力却越来越多。

房地产市场长期传达出上涨信号，跟体制有关、跟经济发展阶段有关、跟人口年龄结构有关、跟分税制造成的土地财政有关、跟贫富差距过大有关、跟房地产资源分配不均衡有关、跟金融体系风险系统化从而央行被绑架有关。This long-term rise has made the so-called property speculation groups full of profits。

However, the logic of real estate speculation has never worked in the first place。如果认为阶级已经固化，有钱人已经有更多更好的房子，那么炒的房子是指望卖给更穷的阶层，然而指望更穷的阶层用更高的价格买房，只有更穷的阶级获得了更高的收入增长，而这要普遍出现的话，只能通过更高的通货膨胀。

In the face of rising housing prices and financial operation mechanism, individuals are trappedPrisoner's dilemma，他们担心不参与到购房、囤房、炒房的大军，被房地产绑架的金融体系会终将逼迫Central bank lending，通货膨胀终将居高不下，让他们的货币和存款缩水。It should be said that this fear is not unnecessary。于是越来越多人参与进去，把房价越炒越高，把金融体系的风险也越推越高，这又逼迫央行放更多水助推房价，形成恶性循环。

商品的价格决定了最终的分配，分配的结果又引导人们的经济行为，高企的房地产价格引导更多的劳动力投向了房地产和相关的金融行业，茫茫多人的工作其实是围绕房地产展开。

如果把视角开大一点，把个人的行为汇集为整体，就会明白整个中国实际上正在试图通过储蓄房子来应对老龄化，当房子已经够用时，这种储蓄必然是毫无意义的，对于应对整体社会层面的劳动力短缺没有什么益处。

In economic comparison and review most articles, for the last century90年代日本的萧条往往从1985年的广场协议叙起，以日本央行连续升息刺破房地产、股市泡沫为高潮，显得日本的萧条好像是美国在搞鬼，又好像是日本央行一意孤行，画外音是如果央行不那么操作，日本就能避免萧条。This is a bad example of how central banks around the world are rarely actively trying to pop economic bubbles today。

Yet there is little written about why the BOJ did what it did, and why it dared to take on so much responsibility。其实，在日本央行动手之前，有一个日本未来何去何从的大讨论，当时的日本人看到了他们的商社在倒腾房地产、车企在倒腾房地产、化工厂在倒腾房地产、东大京大的学生一毕业就倒腾房地产，全民投机搞房地产。It was famously said that Japanese real estate could buy the entire United States。日本人说这样不行，日本是个资源匮乏的国家，只有房子大家都要喝西北风，要制造业立国、科技立国。So the Japanese punctured the real estate bubble after realizing that saving houses alone would ruin the future of Japanese society。

Just as the price of real estate is merely a redistribution of wealth, the price of stocks has nothing to do with the wealth of society。Foxconn's share price on the secondary market is either10块还是100块，富士康始终就是那个富士康，该组装多少iphone组装多少iphone。And relying on stock pension is even less reliable than real estate pension。

In fact，Whether it's currency, real estate, insurance or any other financial product，It's a zero-sum game for society as a whole，If it does not bring the optimization of resource structure，It is purely a consumption structure，But in the current political and economic environment，These consumption structures are thriving and getting bigger，Making dealing with ageing even more difficult。

4

很多人已经感受到了，社会整体不仅没有往提高劳动效率的方向发展，相反内耗越来越严重，各领域各行业逆淘汰现象严重，德才皆失而靠无耻和欺骗升官发财的人不是个案。What is even more worrying is that we seem to have lost the ability to correct mistakes and can only allow ourselves to drift further and further down the wrong path。

China's demographic crisis today is not without warning, nor is it without room for mitigation。早在In 2000, the results of the National Bureau of Statistics' population sample survey showed that the total fertility rate in that year was only 1.22, already well below what is needed for generational change.1。Faced with this data, the National Health and Family Planning Commission that year believed that there was a large amount of underreporting and raised the total fertility rate to 1.8, so that the population calculation, relevant policy planning, including the United Nations report in the following decade are based on the total fertility rate 1.8走。

According to the sixth census in 2010, the fertility rate that year was only 1.18, close to the statistics of 2000, and far from the figures of the Health and Family Planning Commission。In 2013, when the second child was implemented, the population problem was already a crisis, and some experts and scholars began to call for birth control。

However, China is the most“顶尖”的人口学专家、中国人口学会会长，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心主任，中华人口奖获得者翟振武 ，撰文公开表示“如果全面放开二孩，中国每年出生人口峰值将达到4995万，总和生育率将达到4.5”。2014年7月，卫计委官员在新闻发布会上也采纳了翟的数据，认为如果全面放开二孩，将会累计多生出9000余万人。

The fact pops in the face that the birth population isThe peak in 2016 did not touch 18 million, and it has begun to decline in 2017。可就是在这样的情况下，2017年3月，卫计委在新闻发布会依然公开表示，中国的生育情况“完全符合预判”，中国不缺人口，而且未来一百年都不缺。

Not only are there obvious mistakes that go uncorrected and unaccountable, but some people prosper because of them。Are we really gonna live in"There is no right or wrong, only interests of the adult world"？You know, in this kind of world, most people are doomed。

5

According to Tsinghua's China Pension Development Report2016》，2015年，城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户累计记账额是47144亿元，而当年城镇职工养老保险基金累计结余额只有35345亿，已经有了大约1.A $2 trillion difference。The pension amount is the base plus the personal account amount, so the actual pension shortfall is greater than this number。15 years later, no one mentioned the number, which is probably astronomical。

Basic pension transfer payments from the central government to local governments,The figure for 2017 was 5,858.8 billion, the 2018 budget has reached 6,696.5.6 billion, which means,I used to rely on local government pensions, and some places have been unable to pay them,It depends on the central government670 billion to pay pensions to retired workers in these places。This number will also increase year by year。

去年底的时候，医保金告急，医保控费，很多药开不出来，要求各大医院耗材挑便宜的用，手术能用普通丝线就不要用蛋白线等价格高的缝合线，有一些手术因此推迟。Although the direct responsibility lies with the social security fund, it also reflects the overall situation from the sideFinancial dilemma。

Neither the local government nor the central government is doing too well。财政支出涨得很快，减税的力度就不可能很大，大家所希望的个人所得税大幅调减，是不符合财政现实的。Local land finance is not a permanent solution,In some extreme places, urban construction has been basically completed, the population is stable or even negative growth, and there is no need to increase the construction land。If local governments do not borrow maliciously, they must find another source of revenue,The central government's prescription is real estate tax。

In the later official statements on the real estate tax, it is emphasized that the real estate tax is not for regulating real estate, but mainly for fiscal revenue。其实全中国都抵制房地产税，即使是地方财政收入，地方政府也不愿开征，因为房地产税是引渠，而火烧眉毛的地方政府现在最需要的是土地出让金那桶水。Even so, if you don't print money into hyperinflation, real estate taxes will always have to be levied in the long run。

Some friends around me believe that even if the real estate tax is levied, it will not be levied on their own heads, which is too optimistic。要知道房地产税是用来解决财政收入问题的，如果资产和收入在前百分之几甚至千分之几的人都没有贡献，那么除非是最富的那批人大出血，才能填上财政窟窿。

The real estate tax will not be collected for a while, and the debt crisis is already on the rise。According to the data,2018年1-5月的全国房地产销售、房地产价格火热到都破了记录，但是债务违约却此起彼伏，房价上行时尚且如此，如果房价开始下行，局面难以想象。Everyone is once again looking to central banks to come to the rescue。央行的尴尬在于，虽然可以无视通胀、房价上涨和杠杆上行，其核心约束外汇储备却并不处在健康的状态。

2016年至今，央行始终没能找到瘦身的机会以抵消外汇储备下降带来的影响，相反，市场对Central bank lending越来越依赖，资产负债表越来越臃肿。By this year，A wave of bond defaults has once again declared a liquidity crisis，And the central bank needs to gain room for monetary policy maneuvering，It would be impossible to force exchange rates，The renminbi has experienced a rapid depreciation，The market interpreted it as "abandon the exchange rate to protect housing prices".，In fact, the central bank may not be so concerned about house prices，The focus is on preventing bond defaults from becoming systemic financial risks。

But even if central banks abandoned exchange rates altogether, systemic risks to the financial system could only be delayed, not eliminated。For central banks, money can always be printed, so any problem it solves is not a problem,So the problems we are facing now are not going to be solved by money。The essence of the economy is what people are doing, and if people aren't doing anything, you're not going to have a healthy and sustainable economy。现在人们就是一拿到钱就投房地产或者其他金融资产，然后等下家用更高的价格接盘，然而人就这么多，其实根本没有下家，都只是互相接盘，把资产价格吹高到流动性不足，又去呼吁Central bank lending。

Even leaving aside exchange-rate constraints, the cycle of the entire financial system is nothing more than,Central bank lending-->资产价格上涨-->信贷扩张-->扩张到极限或者遇到监管去杠杆-->流动性告急-->敦促Central bank lending，这时央行真放水的话，也只不过是这个循环再走一遍，而在过去十年里，这循环已经走了很多遍了。After each cycle, the water requirements get bigger and bigger Central bank assets and liabilities diverge further and further。And there's a universal term for this kind of behavior like central banks kicking the can down the road"Time for space", but do we still have time？

这10年里，劳动力人口已经从巅峰下降6年了，出生人口也登顶回落，总人口也将负增长，我们这个经济体还能经得起几次这样的循环？但要打破循环，历史上，都是通过资产价格重置实现的，包括房地产、股票价格重置，也包括债权减记，这个过程有个俗称，叫金融危机。

6

When times are bad, people like to gamble。

There are a lot of people involved in gambling in this year's World Cup, and when the group stage was cold, everyone joked about meeting to the rooftop。勤劳致富的路子走不通，有些人算了算，这辈子要能买上套心仪的房子，得从唐朝开始上班，也就乐于向发横财的机会投怀送抱。

不仅如此，如果不找点发横财的机会，善良正直的人们还很容易焦虑和愧疚，因为有很多公众号成天发文刺激大家，比如《你还在靠死工资吗？", "Can't give her what she wants to say love her", "peers have put you far away", the end of the text are allp2p and all kinds of investment advertising。Occasionally the title like chicken blood text "society in the elimination of people who do not learn" point into a look is to teach you how to do his family micro business。

In the early years, I used to tell people not to goA-share gambling, and then it turns out that if people don't go to A-share gambling, they will go elsewhere to gamble, anyway。而且都不叫赌博，叫投资，还学习很多技术分析、靠阅读小软文学习新经济新技术，觉得自己很用功，马上就要站在下一个时代的风口。Even, some are not even called gambling, there is a chance to win to call gambling, no chance to win called cheated。

现在骗局基本是什么样呢，就是你知道这是个骗局，但是做局之人让你相信，以后会有更多的人上当受骗，从而能让你受益，但对做局者来说，其实一开始就只是指望你的钱而已。Sometimes I say that this is a bureau, someone will jump out and scold: it deserves you to make money in your life。

后来我想了想，对于已经入局的人来说，一方面他还指望后面的新人入局替他解套，另一方面真相和现实可能根本不重要，这是绝望境遇下的最后念想。In fact, I know a few people who make a lot of money, luck factors do affect a lot, but as the saying goes"One life two luck three feng shui", light luck pure gambling fortune I just heard, have not seen。

A股上赌得稍微大些的，基本是一开始碰上牛市赚了些钱的人，如果刚开始炒股就碰上熊市赔本，有些人就不玩了。赚到钱尝到甜头，就把更多身家放进去，绝大多数人很快就会套牢，一套好几年，期间会发1001遍誓，解套后就再也不炒股了。There are often things out of the trap, quit the stock market people have not seen a few。

说句政治不正确的话，中国人嗜赌、俄罗斯人嗜酒，有多少由遗传因素造成不知道，但环境的影响也很明显。作为一个离开农业社会不远的国家，不知道大家对农业生产者的生活状态有多少了解，那是靠天吃饭的营生，从决定今年种什么起就是一场赌博，赌风调雨顺，赌收成如意，还要赌来年市场行情好，所以农村赌风更炽。

7

2018年，People born in 1987 are 31 years old，State pensions are already trillions of dollars short，They may even be running out of money，The health insurance fund will not be able to prescribe drugs at the end of the year;The year 2018，Those born in 1987 are 31 years old，We don't have a relief system yet，There is no error correction mechanism，There is not even a personal bankruptcy system under the wave of debt defaults。

所谓“未富先老”，这里的富不是指有钱没钱、有多贵的房子，而是真正的社会财富——风清气正，公平正义、环境优美、安居乐业、制度保障，这些我们都很缺乏。

值此转折关口，也是这拨人口高峰出生的人们尚有最后一丝活力的时候，让我们多创造点社会财富，好吗？

Sorry to write too long, you should be very tired, but let me just say a few words:

I have a dream that one day we can let good be rewarded with good, evil with evil, survival of the fittest。

I have a dream that people will be able to do the work they love, instead of going to work every day feeling heavier than going to their graves。人们能靠自己的薪水、小生意过上合适的生活、住上合适的房子，而不是被迫去追赶各种发财的机会。

I have a dream where people look forward to the future instead of worrying。

I have a dream that people can really think of each other, instead of cheating。

I have a dream that we can make this place good, both in the natural and social environment Instead of trying to emigrate to another country。After all, if I was born and raised here9.6 million square kilometers without shelter, where else in the world would there be shelter。（转）